A new poll has raised alarms as it reveals that a significant majority of Americans have a clear preference for the upcoming presidential election.
As reported by AP News on Sunday, August 25, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a critical swing state, according to three different polling averages.
This comes after President Joe Biden exited the presidential race on July 21, allowing Harris to become the Democratic nominee.
Since then, Harris has gained momentum not just nationally, but also in crucial battleground states like North Carolina, though the race remains close.
Harris leads Trump by 1.1 points in North Carolina according to The Hill’s polling average, showing her at 48% and Trump at 46.9%.
However, her lead diminishes in the Silver Bulletin Presidential Model, which shows Harris at 46.8% compared to Trump’s 46.5%. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows an even narrower margin, with Harris at 45.8% and Trump at 45.6%.
Trump’s campaign remains confident, with communications director Steven Cheung stating that Trump has a 63% chance of winning North Carolina, based on a Polymarket election forecast.
However, this forecast showed Trump’s lead shrinking to 58% over Harris’s 42% by Sunday.
North Carolina is historically a battleground state. The last time a Democratic presidential nominee won the state was in 2008 when Barack Obama secured it against Republican Senator John McCain.
Obama later lost the state in 2012 to Republican Mitt Romney. Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, but by relatively slim margins of 3.6 and 1.3 points, respectively. If Harris can flip North Carolina this year, it would mark a significant gain for her campaign.
Harris also holds slight leads over Trump in other key swing states. In Pennsylvania, she leads by 48.4% to 47.5%, in Michigan by 48.3% to 46.4%, and in Wisconsin by 49.5% to 46.2%, according to The Hill.
Trump, however, is ahead in Arizona (47.3% to 47.2%), Nevada (47.3% to 46.3%), and Georgia (49.2% to 46.5%).
The Silver Bulletin model similarly shows Harris ahead in Pennsylvania (47.7% to 46%), Michigan (48% to 44.6%), Wisconsin (48.9% to 45.5%), Arizona (46.6% to 45.1%), and Nevada (46.2% to 45%), while Trump leads in Georgia (47.5% to 46.8%). report by CNN.
FiveThirtyEight’s averages largely align with these results, showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Georgia.
On a national scale, Harris leads Trump in all three polling averages, with The Hill showing her ahead by 3.6 points, Silver Bulletin by 4 points, and FiveThirtyEight by 3.5 points.
However, it remains to be seen how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent exit from the race and endorsement of Trump might impact these numbers.
