Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden Among Swing State Voters Despite Hush Money Trial Conviction: Poll Analysis

Former President Donald Trump has maintained his lead over President Biden among nearly 2,000 swing state voters following his conviction in the Manhattan hush money trial, according to a new poll.

Trump’s Edge Remains: Trump, 77, held a 1-point edge over Biden, 81, when 1,897 participants from a previous New York Times/Siena College survey of voters in six battleground states were recontacted between June 3-4. Despite his conviction, Trump’s 48%-45% lead from April and May polling narrowed slightly to a slim 47%-46% advantage. According to the NY Post

Voter Loyalty and Shifts: The poll revealed that Trump retained 93% of the voters who backed him in the earlier survey, with 3% now supporting Biden and 4% shifting to undecided.

Notably, young, nonwhite, and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters were the most likely to abandon Trump following his guilty verdict. Additionally, Trump lost 20% of voters who expressed dislike for both 2024 presidential candidates.

Biden’s Support Base: Biden retained 96% of his supporters when recontacted by the pollster. Interestingly, more than 1.5% of former Biden supporters indicated they would vote for Trump despite his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

Only 3% of Biden supporters reported moving from “unlikely to vote” to “almost certain” to do so post-verdict, compared to 18% for Trump backers. told by Reuters

Additional Poll Findings: The New York Times/Siena College survey findings are corroborated by a post-verdict poll of Michigan voters, which also saw Trump maintaining his lead over Biden.

The Mitchell-Michigan News Source Poll found the former president ahead of the incumbent by 0.6 points in a head-to-head matchup and by 1.2 points in a five-way race with third-party candidates.

Context of the Conviction: Trump was found guilty last Thursday on all 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of a conspiracy to defraud the voting public in 2016.

This conviction marks him as the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime. Despite this, Trump’s support among swing state voters demonstrates the complexities and resilience of his political base.

Implications for 2024: These polling results highlight the enduring support for Trump in key battleground states, setting the stage for a highly competitive 2024 presidential election.

With both candidates retaining a strong core of their respective supporters, the election dynamics will likely hinge on the undecided and swing voters’ responses to ongoing political and legal developments.