Trump Leads Biden Among Independent Voters Ahead of November Election, Poll Shows

Donald Trump holds a substantial lead over Joe Biden among independent voters ahead of the presidential election in November, according to a new poll.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National survey of 1,122 registered voters nationwide found that Trump secured 54 percent of the vote among independent voters compared to 42 percent for Biden in a head-to-head race, with four percent undecided. The poll was conducted between May 21-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The findings showed Trump with even higher support among independent male voters at 56 percent compared to Biden’s 39 percent, with five percent undecided. This contrasts with a much closer race among independent women voters, where Trump only led by 50 percent to Biden’s 47 percent, with three percent undecided.

In a five-way race that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump held an even more substantial lead over Biden among independents. Trump secured 44 percent of independent voters in the five-way race, compared to 28 percent for Biden, 17 percent for RFK Jr., three percent for West, and four percent for Stein, with another four percent undecided.

Once again, Trump performed more strongly among independent men in a five-way race, securing 45 percent of the vote to Biden’s 29 percent. Among independent women, Trump secured 41 percent to Biden’s 28 percent. as reported by Newsweek

Despite these findings among independents, the data shows that the overall race between Biden and Trump remains very tight. In a head-to-head race, Biden leads among registered voters with 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, with two percent undecided. These findings remain unchanged from a poll conducted in early May.

However, in a five-way race, Trump has closed the gap on Biden, securing 44 percent of the vote to Biden’s 40 percent, with RFK Jr. receiving eight percent, West getting two percent, Stein getting three percent, and another three percent undecided. This represents a change from the start of May when Trump and Biden were both tied at 42 percent.

Independents are a critical voting bloc for both Biden and Trump to win over ahead of the November election, which could be determined by close votes in just a handful of key battleground states. Small swings in independent voters could determine the outcome in these states.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes by less than 12,000 votes or 0.23 percent of overall votes cast in the state. Biden also won Arizona by less than 10,500 votes in 2020, or 0.31 percent of voters in the state.

Trump has recently targeted independents with a speech at the Libertarian Party’s national convention last week. He faced boos and hecklers at multiple points during his address and ultimately received only 0.65 percent of the vote for the party’s presidential nominee.

The Libertarian Party, formed in 1971 and supporting civil liberties and capitalism free from government supervision, is the third-largest American political party by voter registration but does not have a significant influence in American politics. It typically garners around three percent of the national vote and has few elected officials.