President Joe Biden is the slight favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model from polling and forecasting website 538, formerly known as FiveThirtyEight.
538’s prediction simulation shows Biden winning November’s race 53 times out of 100, while Trump comes out on top 47 times out of 100. The forecast is based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data. as reported by Newsweek
The Context
With less than five months until the 2024 election, Biden and Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, are nearly tied in the race. Biden, 81, faces historically low approval ratings and concerns about his age. Trump, seeking a second term, was recently convicted of 34 felony counts in a hush money trial.
538 published their official forecast for the 2024 election on June 11, indicating that Biden is currently just ahead in the close race. The model gives Biden a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 47-in-100 chance, suggesting the election could still go either way. told by ABC News
“The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden—a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be),” wrote G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for 538.
The forecast notes that Trump is currently just ahead of Biden in the polls, especially in key swing states which could ultimately decide the 2024 election. However, additional factors such as changes in economic conditions and other political indicators may favor Biden.
“To forecast the election, we rely primarily on polls asking voters whom they support,” Morris added. “However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren’t related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election.”
History suggests that incumbent presidents tend to perform better when running for reelection, and predictions for the economy based on polls can be skewed during times of high political polarization.
Views
Historian and writer Varad Mehta commented on X (formerly Twitter): “For the opposite view of the state of the presidential race, DDHQ has Trump as the slight favorite. The difference? 538 has Biden winning all three blue wall states, and DDHQ has Trump winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Which is what the polls show right now.”
Lawyer James Debate wrote, “Biden narrowly favored to win Presidential election according to 538’s new forecast. I’ve been dunking a lot on 538 this cycle, but this is a surprisingly solid forecast and seems about right for the current polling.” as reported by NBC News, In a second post, he added, “One thing I will say, though, is that they are probably overestimating Kennedy’s vote share. Polls historically tend to overrate third-party candidates. 538 currently has him around 8%, but I would not be surprised if he ends up with half of that.”
