For the first time since late last year, President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump in a Fox News 2024 presidential poll. The survey, conducted among 1,095 registered voters, shows Biden with a slight edge over Trump, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 48 percent.
This marks a shift from previous Fox News polls. In May, Trump led Biden by one point (49 percent to 48 percent), and in March, Trump had a five-point lead (50 percent to 45 percent). The last instance of Biden leading Trump in a Fox News poll was in October 2023, when Biden was ahead by 49 percent to 48 percent.
With the November election less than five months away, the race between Biden and Trump remains highly competitive, with various polls indicating a tight contest. as reported by Newsweek.
Impact of Trump’s Conviction and Economic Perception
The June Fox News poll is the first since Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush money trial. Trump has denied any wrongdoing, labeling the investigation a politically motivated “witch hunt.”
Several factors have contributed to Biden’s improved standing in the polls. More voters now view the U.S. economy as being in “excellent or good” shape, and Biden’s recent announcement of tougher immigration policies has garnered additional support.
Additionally, Biden is ahead by one point (43 percent to 42 percent) in a broader survey including other 2024 candidates. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds 10 percent, with Cornel West and Jill Stein each receiving 2 percent.
Demographic Shifts and Economic Optimism
Biden has secured support from 73 percent of Black voters, though this is a decrease from the 92 percent he received in the 2020 election. There has also been a notable nine-point swing among independent voters in Biden’s favor since May.
Voter sentiment regarding the economy appears to be benefiting Biden. The poll indicates that 32 percent of voters now believe the economy is in excellent or good shape, the highest percentage since Biden took office. Additionally, 50 percent of voters feel they are financially stable or improving, a five-point increase from last summer. Economic optimism is up by nine points compared to 2023, with 44 percent of voters feeling positive about the economy.
Poll Details and Analysis
The Fox News poll was conducted from June 14-17 by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research ®, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Democratic pollster Chris Anderson noted that while the poll shows slight movement since May, it is favorable for Biden. He highlighted the erosion of Trump’s advantage on economic and immigration issues and Biden’s strengthened positions on abortion and health care.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw observed that the demographic trends defining the race remain consistent, with Biden improving slightly among women and seniors, despite a drop in support from younger voters and African Americans compared to 2020.
