According to a report by Daily Mail. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, New York remains a focal point of discussion, with recent polls examining Donald Trump’s chances against incumbent President Joe Biden.
Historically a Democratic stronghold, New York has not favored a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan’s victories in 1980 and 1984.
However, current polling data and internal concerns among Democrats have prompted a closer look at the potential for a more competitive race in the Empire State.
On Wednesday, Politico reported that several Democrats expressed apprehensions about the state of the White House race.
Biden, who defeated Trump by a substantial 23-point margin in New York in 2020, is now seeing signs of vulnerability in the traditionally blue state.
This concern is amplified by the implications that a weakening lead could have on down-ballot races.
Two private polls conducted in a New York swing House district, one in September 2023 and another in March 2024, indicated that Trump had gained a 1-point lead over Biden.
These polls were conducted before Biden faced increasing calls to reconsider his re-election bid following his widely criticized performance in a CNN debate on June 27.
Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine voiced his concerns to Politico, stating, “We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been.
I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
This sentiment reflects the broader unease within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s declining poll numbers in New York.
Newsweek reached out to both Biden’s and Trump’s offices for comment, but as of now, there has been no response.
Despite recent polls indicating that Biden’s lead over Trump in New York has narrowed to single digits, many analysts still expect the president to secure a victory in the state in November.
A June poll from Siena College, which surveyed 805 registered voters, showed Biden with an eight-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 39 percent).
This poll also highlighted Biden’s lowest-ever favorability rating in New York, at 42 percent.
In comparison, a May Siena College poll showed Biden with a nine-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 38 percent), a slight change from the ten-point lead recorded in April. report from CNN.
Similarly, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey conducted in May among 1,000 New York voters indicated that Biden held a seven-point lead over Trump (48 percent to 41 percent).
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that “Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43 percent to 33 percent.”
Contrastingly, a May poll by Slingshot Strategies of 1,059 registered voters showed Biden with a more substantial 19-point lead over Trump, a margin that more closely aligns with the 2020 election results.
This variation in poll results underscores the fluctuating nature of voter sentiment and the potential for changes as the election draws nearer.
Despite these concerns, influential political analysis platforms such as the Cook Political Report continue to list New York as solidly Democratic, suggesting that it is not considered a competitive or likely swing state.
The Hill also gives Biden a 98 percent chance of winning New York in November, reflecting the strong Democratic leanings of the state’s electorate.
If Trump were to close the gap significantly or even come close to winning New York, it would be seen as a major achievement for the Republican candidate and could signal broader challenges for Biden’s campaign.
Historically, Democrats have enjoyed substantial margins of victory in New York, with six of the nine presidential elections since Reagan’s last win featuring a margin of more than 20 points.
The last genuinely competitive presidential race in New York was in 1988 when Democrat Michael Dukakis narrowly defeated Republican George H.W. Bush by a four-point margin (52 percent to 48 percent).
Since then, the state has consistently supported Democratic candidates by wide margins.
As the 2024 election approaches, Biden’s campaign will need to address the concerns of both Democratic leaders and voters in New York.
Maintaining strong support in traditionally blue states like New York is crucial for Biden’s re-election prospects, especially as polls show tightening races in other key battleground states.
While recent polls indicate that Biden’s lead over Trump in New York has narrowed, the president is still expected to win the state in the upcoming election.
However, the concerns raised by Democrats and the shifting poll numbers underscore the importance of continued voter engagement and addressing key issues that resonate with the electorate.
As the campaign progresses, both candidates will undoubtedly focus significant efforts on securing support in this historically Democratic state.
