President Joe Biden has a razor-thin lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to VoteHub’s average of America’s most reliable pollsters.
In March, both Biden and Trump secured their respective party nominations for the 2024 presidential election. Polls indicate a tight race, with the two candidates either statistically tied or holding marginal leads in various surveys. as reported by Newsweek
VoteHub, which aggregates polling averages from highly rated pollsters, shows Biden with a very slim lead of 0.1 percent over Trump, garnering 45.9 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 45.8 percent. This is a slight decline from earlier in the month when Biden led by 0.2 percent.
This marginal lead comes in the aftermath of Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election. Some polls suggest this guilty verdict is negatively affecting Trump’s electoral prospects.
A recent report by ABC News, Morning Consult poll revealed Trump losing a previous lead over Biden. On May 28, Trump was ahead by 2 percentage points but is now trailing by 1 percentage point, with Biden at 44 percent and Trump at 43 percent. This is the first time Biden has led in this poll since early May. The survey, conducted June 7-9 with 10,260 registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Despite national poll interest, the 2024 presidential election will likely be decided by key swing states due to the Electoral College system. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Mark Shanahan, an American politics expert at the University of Surrey, noted the fluctuating fortunes of both candidates. He mentioned that Trump’s felony convictions are not resonating well with independent voters, while Biden’s recent activities, such as his presence on the Normandy beaches for D-Day commemorations, have boosted his standing with veterans and older voters. told by The NYT, However, issues like the Hunter Biden gun trial and foreign policy challenges in Gaza are detracting from Biden’s positive image.
“There’s a suggestion that Trump’s 34 felony convictions aren’t playing well with independents, and Biden’s presence on the Normandy beaches to commemorate D-Day played well with veterans and older voters,” Shanahan told Newsweek. “But the horrors in Gaza undermine Biden’s foreign policy credentials, and the Hunter Biden gun trial is sucking away positive oxygen at home.”
The first of two scheduled debates between Biden and Trump will take place on June 27 in Atlanta, with the presidential election set for November 5.
