Donald Trump has frequently hinted at withdrawing the U.S. from NATO, leading critics to wonder when, not if, he would abandon the alliance if reelected. However, interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts suggest he is unlikely to quit NATO outright. Instead, Trump might push for significant changes that could undermine the alliance’s stability.
Trump would likely demand that European countries drastically increase their NATO spending, a primary complaint during his presidency. According to Report from Politico, Defense expert Dan Caldwell, reflecting the views within Trump’s advisory circle suggests a “radical reorientation” of NATO is necessary due to rising U.S. debt, declining military recruitment, and industrial challenges posed by Russia and China.
While Trump has not yet named a new national security team or outlined a NATO agenda, discussions within his circle focus on reducing America’s security role in Europe. The proposed shift would see the U.S. maintaining its nuclear umbrella but transferring the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics, and artillery responsibilities to European allies.
One emerging idea is a two-tier NATO system, where countries not meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target would lose the full security guarantee of the U.S., potentially undermining Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Trump’s consistent criticism of NATO allies for not meeting spending targets has included controversial remarks suggesting Russia could attack these “deadbeat” countries.
Trump’s approach to NATO could also be influenced by the Ukraine conflict. He is reportedly considering a deal to prevent NATO’s further eastward expansion, specifically into Ukraine and Georgia, while negotiating with Russia over Ukrainian territory. This plan would represent a significant shift in NATO’s affairs, challenging Europe to take on more defense responsibilities amid increasing threats from China and Russia. report from Reuters.
Former defense officials aligned with Trump argue for a more balanced burden-sharing within NATO. Elbridge Colby, a key figure in developing Trump’s National Defense Strategy, emphasizes the need for Europeans to lead NATO efforts, especially given China’s rising threat. Kiron Skinner, another former Trump official, stresses the importance of increased European defense spending to adjust America’s global role.
The first test of Trump’s NATO strategy, if he wins a second term, would likely be his handling of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump has suggested a swift resolution to the conflict, potentially involving Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. Critics argue that this approach would validate Putin’s aggressive actions, while Trump maintains a skeptical stance toward Ukraine’s long-term value to the U.S.
Overall, Trump’s potential return to the presidency raises significant questions about NATO’s future and the balance of defense responsibilities between the U.S. and Europe.
